Nigeria’s inflation rate remained almost unchanged in June 2026, offering a sign that price increases may be slowing. However, experts have warned that rising energy costs could push inflation higher in the coming months.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation dropped slightly from 15.93 per cent in May to 15.91 per cent in June.
Although the yearly inflation rate showed little movement, the monthly inflation rate, which measures how quickly prices are increasing, fell to 1.66 per cent in June from 1.75 per cent in May. This is the lowest monthly increase since January and suggests that price pressures may be easing.
Since February, monthly inflation has been unstable. It rose from 2.01 per cent in February to 4.18 per cent in March before slowing to 2.13 per cent in April. It then declined further to 1.75 per cent in May and 1.66 per cent in June.
Despite the improvement, economists are worried that recent increases in fuel prices could reverse the trend.
Earlier this week, Dangote Petroleum Refinery began selling fuel in dollars instead of naira, leading to an increase of more than N100 per litre in depot prices. Analysts fear the move could put pressure on the foreign exchange market, weaken the naira and make imported goods more expensive.
Professor Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University warned that inflation could climb to 20 per cent if current economic pressures continue. Speaking at a mid-year economic review organised by Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, he said insecurity, exchange rate challenges, global tensions, food supply problems and pre-election spending could keep inflation high.
He noted that a stronger naira would help reduce inflation by lowering import costs, while a weaker naira would continue to push prices upward.
The current inflation rate of 15.91 per cent is significantly lower than the 25.29 per cent recorded in June 2025. It is also below the Federal Government’s 2026 projection of 16.5 per cent and close to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 16 per cent for the year.
However, inflation remains well above the Central Bank of Nigeria’s long-term target of a single-digit rate. Nigeria has not recorded single-digit inflation since 2015.
Food inflation, which remains a major concern for households, stood at 17.52 per cent in June, down from 25.41 per cent a year earlier. On a monthly basis, however, food inflation rose to 3.75 per cent in June from 2.98 per cent in May.
The NBS said the increase was driven by higher prices of food items such as crayfish, fresh pepper, tomatoes, dried green peas and yam tubers. Rising transportation and logistics costs linked to higher energy prices also contributed to the increase.
The World Food Programme has warned that about 35 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the 2026 lean season. According to the organisation, more than 17 million people in nine conflict-affected northern states are already experiencing serious levels of hunger.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased. It fell to 15.92 per cent in June from 25.41 per cent in the same month last year. The monthly core inflation rate also dropped to 1.66 per cent from 1.94 per cent in May.
While the overall inflation trend suggests that price pressures are easing, many Nigerians are still struggling with rising food costs. Economists say this highlights the uneven nature of the country’s inflation slowdown.
Standard Chartered Bank has also expressed caution, raising its average inflation forecast for Nigeria in 2026 to 15.5 per cent from an earlier projection of 12 per cent. The bank also increased its 2027 forecast to 14.7 per cent.
President of the Nigeria Agro Business Group, Kabir Ibrahim, warned that food inflation could worsen in the months ahead. He blamed the situation partly on the government’s food importation programme, which he said reduced food prices temporarily but discouraged local farmers who were already dealing with rising production costs.
According to him, many farmers reduced production because they could no longer make enough profit. He welcomed the government’s recent distribution of free fertilisers to farmers but said the intervention came later than expected.
Analysts say the direction of inflation in the second half of the year will largely depend on fuel prices, exchange rate stability, food supply conditions and government economic policies.
