The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production increased to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026. This was revealed in the organisation’s latest monthly oil market report, which tracks oil output across member countries.
The new figure represents a modest but important improvement compared to February, when Nigeria produced 1.31 million bpd. This means output rose by about 5.25 percent within one month. While this increase signals some level of recovery in Nigeria’s oil sector, production is still below the country’s assigned OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. In practical terms, Nigeria is producing about 117,000 barrels less per day than expected under its quota.
Differences in Production Estimates
OPEC uses two main methods to measure oil production, and this often leads to slightly different figures.
Direct communication (primary data) from Nigerian authorities puts production at 1.38 million bpd
Secondary sources, such as independent energy analysts, estimate higher output at about 1.46 million bpd for March
These differences are normal in the global oil industry because data collection methods, timing, and reporting standards can vary.
Nigeria Maintains Lead in Africa
Despite its challenges, Nigeria has retained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer. In March, the country produced more crude oil than Libya, which recorded about 1.30 million bpd during the same period.
At the broader level, total crude oil production by OPEC member countries averaged 35.06 million bpd in March. This reflects ongoing adjustments in global oil supply, as the alliance continues to respond to market conditions, including demand changes and geopolitical developments.
Ongoing Challenges in Nigeria’s Oil Sector
Nigeria’s oil production has fluctuated in recent months, mainly due to several long-standing issues. These include:
Pipeline vandalism and oil theft
Maintenance and operational setbacks
Aging infrastructure
Regulatory and investment concerns
These factors have made it difficult for the country to consistently meet its production targets, even when global oil prices are favourable.
Higher Figures from Nigerian Authorities
Interestingly, some Nigerian institutions have reported higher production levels than OPEC’s estimates, highlighting differences in measurement and timing.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission recently reported production of about 1.84 million bpd in early April
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited also stated that output stood at around 1.71 million bpd
These figures suggest that production may be improving further beyond March, although they are not directly comparable to OPEC’s monthly averages.
What This Means for Nigeria
The latest data shows that Nigeria is making gradual progress in increasing oil output, which is important for government revenue and economic stability. However, the country still faces a significant task in closing the gap between its actual production levels and OPEC targets.
Improving oil production will likely depend on:
Better security in oil-producing regions
Increased investment in infrastructure
Stronger policy implementation and regulatory stability
Conclusion
Overall, Nigeria’s oil production is on a slow path to recovery, but challenges remain. While the increase to 1.38 million bpd in March is a positive sign, the country must continue working to boost output, reduce losses, and align more closely with its OPEC quota in order to fully benefit from the global oil market.
