A new voter sentiment survey by SBM Intelligence has indicated that President Bola Tinubu faces a daunting challenge in securing a second term owing to worsening economic hardship and escalating insecurity in the country.
SBM Intelligence is an Africa-focused market/security intel gathering and strategic consulting firm. It leads in strategic research, providing actionable analyses of West Africa’s socio-political and economic landscape via practical means.
Their team of researchers and data scientists provide the intel that helps governments, businesses, and nongovernmental organisations achieve strategic objectives as they initiate or expand regional operations.
The inaugural SBM Voter Sentiment Tracker, conducted across the country’s six geopolitical zones with 829 respondents, portrayed widespread dissatisfaction over living conditions while revealing significant shifts in voter preferences ahead of next year’s general election.
SBM Intelligence said its survey sought to measure the mood of voters as political actors begin positioning themselves for the 2027 contest.
The findings come at a time when millions of Nigerians are struggling with soaring food prices, rising poverty and persistent security threats.
The results suggest that public perception of President Tinubu has deteriorated significantly amid growing frustration over inflation, unemployment, electricity shortages and insecurity.
According to the survey, Tinubu enters the 2027 race with a national net favourability score of minus 58.5, the weakest rating among all candidates assessed.
The report noted that respondents rated the administration poorly across key governance indicators, including inflation management, job creation, security and power supply.
The president’s performance scores failed to exceed 2.1 out of 4 across the five policy areas measured, with the North-West emerging as the only region where his ratings approached a more favourable assessment.
In contrast to Tinubu’s ratings, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, emerged as the most popular political figure in the survey. Obi recorded a net favourability score of plus 58.3, making him the only major candidate with a positive national rating.
The survey found that Obi led in voter sentiment across every geopolitical zone except the NorthEast. Perhaps most strikingly, he outperformed President Tinubu even in the South-West, traditionally regarded as the president’s political stronghold.
Among respondents from the region, Obi recorded a net favourability rating of plus 28.9 compared to Tinubu’s plus 15.1, indicating that dissatisfaction with current conditions may be eroding traditional political loyalties.
However, the report cautioned that popularity alone may not translate into electoral victory.
One of the survey’s most important findings relates to voter turnout, which could ultimately determine the outcome of the 2027 election.
According to SBM Intelligence, support for the newly formed NDC, associated with Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, rises dramatically under higher voter participation scenarios. The NDC’s projected vote share increases from 32 percent under low-turnout conditions to as much as 65 percent when voter turnout is high.
This suggests that the opposition’s fortunes may depend less on persuasion and more on mobilising supporters to actually cast their ballots. The data also reveal significant regional differences in the factors driving voter engagement.
The South-East recorded the highest level of high-turnout intention at 87.4 percent, followed by the South-South at 82.9 percent and the North-West at 82.4 percent. Yet the motivations behind these figures vary considerably.
In the South-South, nearly half of respondents indicated that they registered for their permanent voter cards after the 2023 election, suggesting the emergence of a new and highly motivated voting bloc. In the South-East, turnout enthusiasm appears to be driven largely by voters who were already registered rather than by fresh registrations.
Meanwhile, the North-West’s strong turnout intentions are supported by a long-established voter base, with only 18.6 percent reporting new registrations since the last election. Despite these differences, the common factor across the three regions is a strong determination among voters to participate in the next election.
Political observers say this could create a significantly different electoral environment from previous contests, especially if dissatisfaction with current conditions remains widespread.
The survey identifies the SouthWest and North-East as the two regions most likely to determine the eventual winner, though for different reasons. In the South-West, uncertainty stems from what appears to be a divided electorate.
The region recorded the lowest level of high-turnout intention at 44 percent and the highest proportion of undecided voters among major regions at 23 percent. It also remains the only zone where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) retains a substantial support base, accounting for 22 percent of respondents.
