The Nigerian naira maintained a fragile tone on Thursday, trading with a modest gap between the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and the parallel market as participants balanced improved dollar inflows against persistent demand pressures.
Key Rates (October 2, 2025):
NFEM (official): ₦1,483 per US$1
Parallel market: ₦1,490 per US$1
The official NFEM rate —
a volume-weighted figure derived from interbank trading and published by the authorities — closed at about ₦1,483 to the dollar, a slight shift from the previous session.
Traders noted that the official window remains sensitive to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) liquidity operations and order flows through the electronic matching system.
In the parallel market, the naira traded around ₦1,490 to the dollar, leaving a spread of roughly ₦7. This narrow gap contrasts with the wider double-digit spreads witnessed during periods of heightened market stress, suggesting partial convergence between the two segments.
However, the parallel market continues to serve individuals and businesses unable to access dollars through official channels.
Market Drivers
Analysts linked the relative calm to moderate foreign currency inflows from diaspora remittances and import receipts, combined with CBN interventions that helped curb sharp intraday fluctuations. Global factors also played a role, with the US dollar holding broadly steady in international markets following recent volatility.
Traders’ Perspective
Dealers observed that demand from importers, students, and travellers remains the major driver of parallel market volumes, while banks and authorised dealers handle most corporate flows through NFEM.
Analysts cautioned that the present convergence remains fragile, requiring sustained inflows, deeper FX liquidity, and consistent policy signals to stabilise the naira more permanently.
Outlook
Short-term forecasts suggest the dollar will likely trade within ₦1,480–₦1,495 in the official market and ₦1,485–₦1,500 in the parallel market over the coming days, provided dollar supply remains steady and demand does not surge unexpectedly.
Policymakers’ ability to manage measured interventions and improve liquidity will be central to maintaining exchange rate stability.